Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 129,481
2 South Dakota 124,766
3 Rhode Island 114,962
4 Utah 112,838
5 Arizona 109,750
6 Tennessee 109,112
7 Oklahoma 104,694
8 Iowa 104,506
9 Wisconsin 104,361
10 Arkansas 103,833
11 Nebraska 102,233
12 Kansas 99,718
13 Alabama 98,222
14 Indiana 96,971
15 Mississippi 96,762
16 South Carolina 94,978
17 Idaho 93,766
18 Nevada 93,754
19 Illinois 92,022
20 Wyoming 91,810
21 Montana 91,295
22 Louisiana 90,430
23 Georgia 88,767
24 Texas 88,694
25 California 88,326
26 Kentucky 88,138
27 New Mexico 86,206
28 Delaware 85,481
29 Florida 85,250
30 New Jersey 84,149
31 Minnesota 84,090
32 Missouri 82,938
33 Massachusetts 81,153
34 Ohio 80,525
35 New York 79,505
36 North Carolina 79,020
37 Alaska 76,561
38 Connecticut 75,798
39 Colorado 72,395
40 West Virginia 71,360
41 Pennsylvania 70,398
42 Virginia 64,616
43 Michigan 63,107
44 Maryland 61,512
45 District of Columbia 55,261
46 New Hampshire 52,229
47 Washington 43,507
48 Puerto Rico 41,159
49 Oregon 35,674
50 Maine 31,748
51 Vermont 22,215
52 Hawaii 18,930

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 573
2 New York 404
3 Delaware 334
4 Rhode Island 303
5 North Carolina 302
6 Oklahoma 290
7 Virginia 286
8 New Jersey 276
9 Connecticut 271
10 Massachusetts 267
11 Mississippi 261
12 Florida 257
13 Tennessee 251
14 Georgia 238
15 Vermont 238
16 Kentucky 234
17 New Hampshire 231
18 Utah 219
19 Arizona 211
20 Pennsylvania 205
21 Alabama 199
22 Nebraska 197
23 Arkansas 192
24 Ohio 186
25 West Virginia 186
26 Nevada 181
27 Texas 178
28 California 169
29 New Mexico 164
30 Indiana 159
31 Colorado 158
32 District of Columbia 156
33 Maryland 150
34 Kansas 148
35 Minnesota 137
36 Louisiana 129
37 Montana 129
38 Illinois 128
39 Iowa 122
40 South Dakota 116
41 Wisconsin 106
42 Maine 103
43 Puerto Rico 95
44 Michigan 89
45 Missouri 77
46 North Dakota 77
47 Oregon 70
48 Idaho 40
49 Washington 38
50 Hawaii 30
51 Wyoming 28
52 Alaska 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,529
2 New York 2,341
3 Massachusetts 2,251
4 Rhode Island 2,203
5 Mississippi 2,171
6 Connecticut 2,088
7 South Dakota 2,084
8 Arizona 2,057
9 Louisiana 2,005
10 North Dakota 1,917
11 Alabama 1,885
12 Indiana 1,810
13 Pennsylvania 1,808
14 Illinois 1,749
15 Arkansas 1,747
16 New Mexico 1,688
17 Iowa 1,659
18 Michigan 1,614
19 Tennessee 1,588
20 South Carolina 1,560
21 Nevada 1,533
22 Kansas 1,512
23 Georgia 1,455
24 Texas 1,430
25 Ohio 1,402
26 District of Columbia 1,388
27 Florida 1,347
28 Delaware 1,317
29 Missouri 1,283
30 Maryland 1,253
31 Montana 1,243
32 West Virginia 1,234
33 California 1,192
34 Wisconsin 1,159
35 Minnesota 1,142
36 Wyoming 1,117
37 Nebraska 1,098
38 Colorado 1,028
39 Oklahoma 1,021
40 Idaho 1,010
41 North Carolina 1,005
42 Kentucky 999
43 New Hampshire 834
44 Virginia 821
45 Washington 622
46 Puerto Rico 601
47 Utah 560
48 Oregon 506
49 Maine 482
50 Alaska 370
51 Vermont 304
52 Hawaii 298

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Ohio 35
2 Rhode Island 13
3 South Carolina 9
4 Massachusetts 7
5 New York 7
6 Arizona 6
7 Arkansas 6
8 Connecticut 6
9 Georgia 6
10 Oklahoma 6
11 California 5
12 Florida 5
13 Nevada 5
14 New Mexico 5
15 Alabama 4
16 Delaware 4
17 Kansas 4
18 Maryland 4
19 North Carolina 4
20 South Dakota 4
21 Texas 4
22 Illinois 3
23 Indiana 3
24 Kentucky 3
25 Louisiana 3
26 Michigan 3
27 Mississippi 3
28 Pennsylvania 3
29 Missouri 2
30 New Hampshire 2
31 New Jersey 2
32 Oregon 2
33 Tennessee 2
34 West Virginia 2
35 Colorado 1
36 District of Columbia 1
37 Iowa 1
38 Maine 1
39 Montana 1
40 Puerto Rico 1
41 Utah 1
42 Virginia 1
43 Alaska 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Idaho 0
46 Minnesota 0
47 Nebraska 0
48 North Dakota 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 318,594 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 265,242 2 99
Bent Colorado 255,155 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 239,711 4 99
Lake Tennessee 237,030 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 126,920 224 92
Richland South Carolina 93,723 1223 61
York South Carolina 87,530 1530 51
Orange California 80,892 1841 41
Pierce Washington 40,612 2907 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,682 3 99
Buffalo South Dakota 6,626 4 99
Galax city Virginia 6,617 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 1,168 1929 38
Richland South Carolina 1,135 1964 37
Orange California 1,126 1977 37
York South Carolina 1,046 2093 33
Pierce Washington 560 2683 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons